Yeah, my brackets are shot to hell too… but despite the fact that I’d need a time machine to finish at the top of any March Madness pools this year, I’ll be watching this weekend’s Final Four games with great interest. Here’s a look ahead:
Duke vs. West Virginia
These teams have a history. Two years ago, the seven-seed Mountaineers upset the two-seed Blue Devils in the second round — which set off a whole lot of “hey, why is Duke under-performing?” stories. One of the big players in that game was Joe Mazzulla.
Partly due to injuries, and partly due to the emergence of Darryl “Truck” Bryant at the point, Mazzulla hasn’t been as important a player since. But he stepped up big-time when Bryant suffered a broken foot last week, and was one of the keys to WVU’s win over Kentucky in the regional final.
Of course, this year’s Duke team is markedly different from the squad that lost that game. Blue Devil teams of recent vintage have drawn criticism for being too perimeter-oriented. But with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers in the mix, Duke has excellent size and the ability to get physical in the paint. Zoubek, in particular, has shown the sort of nasty streak we haven’t seen from a Duke team since Christian Laettner was stomping on fallen opponents on the way to national titles.
The Mountaineers can’t match Duke’s size — but they can roll out a half-dozen skilled, athletic combo-forward types in the 6-7 to 6-9 range, and they’re excellent at extending their defense out to the perimeter and making jump-shooters look awful.
(Speaking of looking awful — I’m wondering if WVU coach Bob Huggins will abandon his Paulie Walnuts-style jogging suit in favor of something a little more formal when playing on the game’s biggest stage. If we’re lucky, maybe he’ll go for the George Steinbrenner-style mock turtleneck… always a good look.)
Duke has been impressive, sure — but they also faced the weakest competition on their way to the Final Four. The conspiracy theorists that claimed CBS set up the Blue Devils with an easy route to Indianapolis got plenty of circumstantial evidence — Krzyzewski and company faced a 16 seed, an eight seed with a suspended starter, a Purdue team missing its best player and a Baylor team with zero NCAA Tournament experience on the way to Indianapolis.
I’ve been skeptical of Duke all season. Maybe I’m right. Maybe I’m stubborn. Either way, I like West Virginia.
Butler vs. Michigan State
The tired story line will be the Butler Bulldogs cast as Hickory High from the movie Hoosiers. The “unheralded school from Indiana succeeding at the highest levels of basketball” meme is just reinforced by the fact that the climactic game scenes were filmed at Butler’s home gym, Hinkle Fieldhouse.
A slightly less tired story line will be “mid-major makes good.” And yes, it’s fun to see a team from the Horizon League playing in the Final Four… but don’t forget, the Bulldogs have been a top-15 team all season, and Gordon Heyward will play in the NBA one day. Why weren’t they ranked higher? Playing a Horizon League schedule doesn’t help the old RPI the way ACC, Big Ten or Big East conference games will.
To me, the stories worth watching are Butler’s home-field advantage, Korie Lucious’ performance in Kalin Lucas’ spot, and Tom Izzo vs. Brad Stevens.
This weekend’s games will be played at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis — walking distance from Butler’s campus. The last team to play Final Four games so close to home was UCLA back in 1972 — and considering how dominant that team was, it’s hard to say home court was much of an advantage. Will the Indianapolis crowd propel Butler to the Finals? Or will the distraction of playing in front of friends, family and the entire student body hurt more than it helps?
The Spartans can give the Bulldogs some advice about playing close to home; last year’s Final Four was played in Detroit, in front of a decidedly pro-MSU crowd. That may have helped the Spartans in the semifinal game against Connecticut, but North Carolina dominated the final.
For Michigan State, the biggest question mark is Korie Lucious. Overall, his play has been inconsistent since taking over for the injured Kalin Lucas, who ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in the first half of the Spartans’ second-round win over Maryland. But he’s been tremendous at crunch time, canning the game-winner in the Maryland game and helping to ice wins over Northern Iowa and Tennessee with big plays in the final seconds. Lucious’ play will be a big factor in determining whether or not the Spartans advance to a second straight final.
It will also be interesting to see how well 33-year-old Butler coach Brad Stevens fares against one of the most highly-respected tournament coaches of the last decade on Saturday, and — if Butler advances — against either the winningest active coach in Division I (Krzyzewski) or the man in fourth place (Huggins). A Butler win isn’t just a victory for the mid-majors — it’s a victory for the next generation of basketball minds.
Butler hasn’t lost since before Christmas, but I can’t bring myself to pick Stevens over Izzo. Michigan State is the pick.
Final Four Preview originally appeared on About.com Basketball on Wednesday, March 31st, 2010 at 16:39:50.
Permalink | Comment | Email this
