Category Archives: Boston Celtics

Waiver Wire: All-Star Questions

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My biggest questions for All-Star Weekend are simple:

“Is there an average NBA fan that can name – without prompting – more than one participant in the Slam Dunk Contest? And if so, does he or she win a prize?”

And …

“Will the notoriously long-winded Alicia Keys finish her halftime performance in less than 60 minutes? Because I sort of suspect that she’ll still be singing in the middle of the third quarter.”

My questions for the second half of the season are a bit more complex, starting with …

Which NBA superstar is fading fastest?

For years, I’ve been avoiding Dwyane Wade in the first round of fantasy drafts, reasoning that, given his injury history, his production will inevitably drop off a cliff. It seems I’ve been fading the wrong All-Star guard.It wasn’t long ago that Deron Williams was just a hair behind Chris Paul in the fantasy point guard rankings. But we haven’t seen him produce at that level for years now. There have been plenty of plausible reasons for his sub-par numbers. He was unhappy in Utah, and then he was playing for an awful Nets team. This year he’s surrounded by talent, but didn’t like Avery Johnson’s offense … and he has dealt with a variety of injuries.

The injuries are most concerning, as they’re really starting to add up. Williams received platelet-rich plasma treatments on both ankles last week, which could indicate that his leg problems are both worse than we thought and not really getting better.

It will be very interesting to see how he plays for the rest of this season and in the playoffs, but as things stand, I won’t be in any rush to draft Williams next year.

How long does an ACL take to heal fully?

Adrian Peterson’s remarkable season – just months removed from a torn ACL – may have given us some funny ideas about how long it takes to recover from that injury. Iman Shumpert’s unimpressive return, and Derrick Rose’s struggles in rehab – should be major reality checks.

As a rookie, Shumpert impressed NBA fans with his quickness, perimeter defense, and ability to get to the rack off the dribble. Since his return from injury, though, he’s been more tentative on both ends of the floor. I’d argue that Mike Woodson’s awkward three-guard lineup, which puts Shump on the floor with both Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd, is part of the problem, but that’s an argument for another column. Is he completely healthy? Is he having trouble trusting the knee? Or did we overrate him based on an impressive debut in a big media market?

I know, that never happens with Knicks players. Hang on, I have to go get my Landry Fields jersey out of the dryer.

Of course, Shump is a marginal fantasy prospect in most formats, unlike Derrick Rose.Like Shumpert, Rose tore an ACL during the first round of the playoffs, but the Bulls’ All-Star guard has yet to make an appearance this season, and recently told reporters that he isn’t close to a return.Rose has even suggested that he’ll sit out the entire season to get the knee back to full strength.

What does this tell us?

1. If you’re one of the players holding on to Rose in a non-keeper league – Rose is 83% owned, so there are a lot of you out there – you might want to consider the possibility of using that roster spot more productively.

2. You’ll also want to be very conservative when considering players like Rajon Rondo or likely lottery pick Nerlens Noel in next year’s drafts.

via Waiver Wire: All-Star Questions – RotoWire.com.

Working the Wire: Stiemsma, Jorts and Mahinmi

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Let’s say you’re one of many fantasy owners left without a center due to DeMarcus Cousins’ temper tantrum. (And as an aside, wouldn’t it be awesome if the box scores listed Cousins as DNP – knucklehead or something similar?)

Don’t fret. There are productive fantasy center options popping up every day, in the least likely places. The D-League, for example. One time D-League defensive player of the year Greg Stiemsma stepped into the Celtics’ starting lineup on Monday, in place of an injured Jermaine O’Neal, and racked up 13 points, seven boards, two blocks and two assists in just 21 minutes against the Wizards. With O’Neal’s injury history, one could make a pretty compelling case that Stiemsma will log a lot of minutes in that spot, and possibly take the starting job before too long. On that potential alone, he should probably be owned in more than, uh, zero percent of all Yahoo! leagues and 1.1 percent on ESPN.

Another surprisingly-productive big man – New York’s Josh Harrellson – arrived as a largely unheralded second-round pick out of Kentucky. But when Amar’e Stoudemire went down with an ankle injury, Harrellson got an opportunity and, against the Kings on New Year’s Eve posted his first career double-double in his first career start 14 points, 12 boards, 4-8 3pt. A three-point shooter on the offensive end and a banger on defense, Harrellson could emerge as a poor man’s Troy Murphy as the season progresses. And though he won’t be in the starting lineup for long – Stoudemire should be back this week – there will be plenty of minutes available in New York’s frontcourt; both Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler have extensive injury histories.

Dallas’ Ian Mahinmi is also worth a look in some leagues, as it seems Rick Carlisle is splitting playing time between him and Brendan Haywood more or less evenly this season. Mahinmi has logged 20 or more minutes in four straight games and just missed a double-double 10 points, 9 boards against Oklahoma City on Monday.

Full article and this week’s waiver recommendations here: Working the Wire: NBA Waiver Recommendations – RotoWire.com.

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Hollinger’s Projections for the East: Altering Stories and Preconceived Notions

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Every year, I work with the guys at Rotowire.com to put together a very extensive fantasy NBA draft kit. Andre’ Snellings is the numbers guy… he spends hours and hours projecting stats for just about every player in the league. Once he’s done, other writers – myself included – look at those numbers and see if they jibe with what we think will happen. This leads to a lot of conversations along these lines:

“Hey Dre, you have Player X ranked ahead of Player Y, but I’m pretty sure Player Z is going to get more run this season and cut into X’s minutes.”

And so on. One side has numbers. The other has preconceived notions. When the process works properly, we adjust the numbers to fit expectations… or our stories to fit the numbers… or we meet somewhere in the middle.

When the process works poorly, you get something like John Hollinger’s projections for the Eastern Conference.

Now, this is not going to be a slam of Hollinger in general. I think he’s great – one of the best at using/explaining so-called “advanced” basketball stats to the casual fan. We all miss the mark from time to time, and Hollinger’s Eastern Conference preview clanked off the rim.

As my Rotowire colleague Mike Salfino points out over at SNY, Hollinger says there are six “genuinely good” teams in the East… and picks the Knicks seventh. Now, I disagree on that – I think the Knicks will challenge for the top spot in the Atlantic and a top-three seed in the playoffs – but that’s not my problem with the column.

There are lots of valid reasons to be concerned about how well the Knicks will play this season – reasons like:

  • Tyson Chandler has a long injury history. He was very effective in Dallas, but played just 27 minutes a night; Dallas had the luxury of limiting his playing time because they had Brendan Haywood on the bench. The Knicks won’t have that option unless Jerome Jordan is remarkably effective as a rookie.
  • Toney Douglas may not be well-suited to playing the point… and depending on Baron Davis’ progress, Douglas may be in that role for a fairly significant chunk of the season.
  • Landry Fields might be the guy we saw in the second half and playoffs, and not the one who won Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in November and December.
  • Iman Shumpert might not be ready.
  • The bench might be horrible.
  • Most importantly, we still don’t really know if Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony work as a duo.

Instead, Hollinger explained his 35-31 projected record by saying,

They’ve essentially traded Chauncey Billups for Tyson Chandler, which will help, but this is the wrong season to have a thin bench and brittle stars. Between Amare Stoudemire‘s knees and Chandler’s toes, the Knicks are likely to feel the brunt of the schedule-makers’ wrath.

Now… I do think it’s fair to say that the Knicks are in deep trouble if they lose any two of their big three for any length of time. But a) that could be said of just about every team in the league and b) is it really fair to say the Knicks are more vulnerable to an injury than, say, the Celtics?

Apparently Hollinger thinks so.

He raises the same concerns about Boston that he did about the Knicks – thin bench (made thinner by Jeff Green’s situation), brittle stars, relentless lockout-driven schedule. But instead of assuming that will hurt the C’s, Hollinger generously gives them a 43-23 record… in part on the assumption that “they’ll get a lot more from Jermaine O’Neal than they did last season.”

So let me get this straight… the Knicks are going to have injury problems because 29-year-olds Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire won’t be able to stay healthy… but 33-year-old Jermaine O’Neal – one of the most notoriously injury-prone players this side of Greg Oden… why, he’ll be just fine.

Everyone got that?

Think the Celtics will take the Atlantic? I can certainly see that happening – they’ve got continuity. They’ve got some truly great players. I’d argue that they’re more susceptible than most teams to compressed schedule related issues, that they have nothing approaching a viable center, and that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to have Rajon Rondo spend the year sulking because Danny Ainge tried to trade him for Chris Paul. And I’d agree to disagree, because both positions have the benefit of reasoning behind ‘em.

Hollinger’s piece, on the other hand, just says, “I wanted the Knicks to come out towards the bottom of the East, so I factored in some injuries.”

 

Doc Rivers: Overrated?

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I think we’re all agreed that Phil Jackson is not overrated as a coach, no matter what Scot Pollard may think. Besides, given some of the haircuts Pollard has sported over the years, his judgment is very much in question.

But what about Doc Rivers?

After last night’s 97-87 loss to Miami, the Celtics are done for the season. And while Rivers may not agree, most NBA observers believe the Celtics’ run as a championship contender – at least with the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen core – is over. And as I’m writing the eulogy for Boston’s “Big Three” era, I can’t help wondering… did this team really accomplish as much as it should have? And how much credit should Rivers get?

To Rivers’ credit, he did an excellent job molding three future hall-of-famers and an incredibly talented but deeply flawed youngster into a perennial contender. He got Garnett, Allen and Pierce to sacrifice individual numbers in pursuit of a team goal. He won one title with that squad. Some would argue Kendrick Perkins’ injury cost him a second. Some would also argue that Shaquille O’Neal’s injury troubles, compounded by a short-sighted decision to trade Perkins at February’s deadline, closed the Celtics’ championship window prematurely. (Rajon Rondo may be part of that last group.)

On the other hand… he did have three future hall-of-famers. Pierce, Garnett and Allen deserve at least some of the credit for that title, no? And unlike other superstar combinations (Jordan/Pippen… LeBron/Wade/Bosh) the Celtics’ Big Three came together when all were on the down side of their careers – sacrificing individual numbers at that stage of the game isn’t quite as shocking.

And about the now-legendary Celtic defense that keyed that championship? Don’t forget, Rivers had Tom Thibodeau on his bench as a D coordinator. Thibs has since gone on to build the NBA’s top defense in Chicago, and win NBA Coach of the Year honors in the process.

I can’t help wondering how many other coaches would have been as – or more – successful in a similar situation. Does Jeff Van Gundy win a title with Garnett/Pierce/Allen/Rondo? What about his brother Stan? Or Rick Adelman? Rick Carlisle?

Does it matter? Only when considering Rivers’ next potential job. Let’s say he does walk away from the Celtics after this season, as was expected before last night’s press conference. Would you want Doc taking over your favorite team?