Earlier today, I was pretty convinced that Chris Paul would be heading to the Warriors for a package involving Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Ekpe Udoh. But as of about 4pm, that rumor had cooled considerably. Says ESPN’s Marc Stein:

CP3 Update: Source close to process tells ESPN that NOR talks w/GSW "definitely cooling" because of GSW refusal to put Steph Curry in deal

December 7, 2011 4:14 pm via UberSocial for BlackBerryReplyRetweetFavorite

@ESPNSteinLine

Marc Stein

So what’s going on here, exactly? A couple of educated guesses…

The Warriors are afraid of giving up a player as good/young/inexpensive as Curry without some assurance that Paul is willing to sign in Oakland long-term. They can’t expect him to sign an extension now – as several outlets have reported, under the new CBA, Paul stands to make significantly more money by getting traded now, opting out after the season, and then re-signing. But they could be looking for a wink-and-nod agreement with Paul’s reps… and that agreement might not be forthcoming.

That hesitation strikes me as very reasonable. After all, Curry plays like a future all-star and is signed through 2013-14 for about $12 million total. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to give up a player like that without a fair amount of confidence that Paul will stick around. Maybe you make that deal if you’re a veteran team that needs one more piece to make a run at a title – the Spurs or the Celtics or the Mavs. The Warriors aren’t winning a title in 2012 with or without Paul, so a rental gamble makes a lot less sense.

But why is Paul hesitant to commit? It’s possible he’s just keeping his options open.

It’s also possible that he really does want to engineer a way to join the Knicks.

And if you’re having flashbacks to 2010 and the Carmelo Anthony saga, you’re far from alone. Don’t forget, CP3 and ‘Melo are represented by the same agency.