The Knicks want Chris Paul. Chris Paul wants the Knicks. But the Knicks don’t have the assets to make a trade for Paul… or, at least, that’s what some writers would have us believe at this point.
I’m reserving judgment. Most of those same writers didn’t think the Knicks had the assets to get Carmelo Anthony, either…
Of course, the ‘Melo-drama plays an important role in this discussion. The new lament of the pessimistic Knick fan is, “If we didn’t give up the farm to get Anthony, we could have signed him as a free agent and had enough left over to make the trade for Paul!” There’s a not-so-subtle subtext in that lament which blames James Dolan for stepping in and boosting the offer because – as the story goes – he was absolutely obsessed with getting ‘Melo in a Knick uniform.
A fair accusation? Probably not. Let’s remember… the reason that Dolan felt urgency to step in was the strong rumor that Anthony would have accepted a contract extension from the Nets if his push to join the Knicks fell through. Was that a real possibility? We’ll never know for sure, but it certainly seemed to be at the time. But for the sake of discussion, let’s pretend that the Knicks refused to increase their offer and that Anthony finished out the season with the Nuggets.
In our hypothetical world, ‘Melo is days away from hitting free agency… and the Knicks’ roster looks like this:
| Player |
Salary |
|
| Amar’e Stoudemire |
18.2 |
|
| Raymond Felton |
7.5 |
|
| Ronny Turiaf |
4.3 |
|
| Danilo Gallinari |
4.2 |
|
| Wilson Chandler (RFA) |
3 |
|
| Anthony Randolph |
2.9 |
|
| Timofey Mozgov |
2.5 |
|
| Renaldo Balkman |
1.7 |
|
| Toney Douglas |
1.1 |
|
| Derrick Brown (RFA) |
1 |
|
| Bill Walker |
0.9 |
|
| Andy Rautins (non-guaranteed) |
0.8 |
|
| Landry Fields (non-guaranteed) |
0.8 |
|
|
48.9 |
|
(Salaries in millions, rounded to the nearest 100k. Data from HoopsHype)
In our hypothetical NBA, the Knicks are about $9 million under the salary cap and primed to make a run at free agent Carmelo Anthony this Friday.
Under the new CBA rules, teams will be able to offer free agents max annual increases of 4.5% over four years. A “max” offer for ‘Melo, based on his 2010-11 salary, would run about $17.9 million in year one. To get that far under the cap, the Knicks would likely need to renounce their rights to Wilson Chandler – a restricted free agent – and either trade Raymond Felton for a future draft pick or cut him loose via the amnesty provision.
Let’s say that happens. The Knicks trade Felton for a future first-rounder and cut ties with Chandler. That leaves Glen Grunwald with a roster that looks like this:
| Player |
Salary |
| Amar’e Stoudemire |
18.2 |
| Carmelo Anthony |
17.9 |
| Ronny Turiaf |
4.3 |
| Danilo Gallinari |
4.2 |
| Anthony Randolph |
2.9 |
| Timofey Mozgov |
2.5 |
| Renaldo Balkman |
1.7 |
| Toney Douglas |
1.1 |
| Derrick Brown |
1 |
| Bill Walker |
0.9 |
| Andy Rautins |
0.8 |
| Landry Fields |
0.8 |
| Iman Shumpert |
TBD |
|
56.3 |
Which brings us to the question… how do you make a trade for Chris Paul with that roster?
The Knicks would still be a hair under the salary cap, which would give them a little flexibility. They wouldn’t need to match Paul’s salary dollar-for-dollar. But is a deal built around Gallinari, Mozgov, Randolph and a pick or two really that much more compelling than what the Knicks have to offer right now?
So what’s the point in all this? Don’t get hung up on what might have happened if Donnie Walsh had called Denver’s bluff and ‘Melo had hit free agency… getting Chris Paul (or Dwight Howard, or Deron Williams – who might not have been dealt if the Anthony trade had fallen through) from New Orleans would still be tough.
MSG’s best asset in this process isn’t a player or a pick anyway, it’s the idea that Paul wants to be a Knick.
Note: Thanks to @jadubin5, @mokehamilton and @theknickswall for their help with the hypothetical Anthony contract numbers.
